UK and the EU

Discussion in 'Off-Topic Discussion' started by clanless, Nov 9, 2015.

  1. longk

    longk Total Gardener

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    I'm not sure that 4% warrants such sweeping definition.

    My opinion is that it is now out of our hands.

    My sentiment exactly but.......................
    Unless you're a big player in The City or negotiating our exit then there is nowt that we can do now. It is down to them now.

    @ARMANDII - good points also but;
    1] Will we still be the fourth largest economy post Brexit?
    2] How long can an economy that remains a net importer remain strong. In 2014 the deficit was about £35 billion. In the same year the financial services sector contributed a surplus of £62 billion. Without that our balance of trade deficit adds up to £97 billion. Now consider the fact that the "passport" for financial services looks like it will be going and things look much less rosy.
     
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    • shiney

      shiney President, Grumpy Old Men's Club Staff Member

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      I agree that we have a possible complication with the financial services 'passport' but there is a possible bright spot on the horizon.

      In January 2018 the rules change under 'Mifid 2' so we may be able to fit within those new rules.

      Under articles 46 and 47 of the new incoming Markets in Financial Instruments Regulation many of the rights allowed to EU 'passport' holders under the current regime can be extended to non-EU countries and their financial services groups.

      Not all services will come under these new rules but a large proportion will. Mutual European funds won't and neither will insurers or Private Banking Funds. Financial lawyers are already working on these problems. :blue thumb:

      Sorry to get a bit technical :sad:
       
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      • clanless

        clanless Total Gardener

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        Anyone with a bit of nouse who voted out, knew that there would be consequences and no eyebrows went up when the pound weakened and shares fell.

        It's a price I'm (any everyone else who voted out apparently) are willing to pay in return for controlling our own destiny.

        Angela spouts on about no free trade agreements - the reality is her business leaders will give her a hard time if she imposes tariffs - it's a 2 way street. She's simply trying to 'discourage' other members from leaving and it looks like she's willing to damage German trade to do it.

        Interesting that Switzerland are currently trying to negotiate free trade - without success.

        The suggestion of a free trade bloc - UK and Nordic countries is looking like it might actually become reality.
         
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        • Anthony Rogers

          Anthony Rogers Guest

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          I promised to stay off this thread ,but, this is nowt to do with it really, I just want to clarify a point I may have missed.

          As far as I'm aware the only Nordic Country not in the EU is Norway. How will we be able to set up a Free trade bloc with the other three without the EU being involved ?
           
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          • clueless1

            clueless1 member... yep, that's what I am:)

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            Again that's just opinion. Only this time it is factually incorrect.

            Big business is precisely nothing without consumers. In fact that's true of business of any size. Business is also nothing without staff. In both cases, that's each of us.

            As staff, we can work diligently to do our best for our employers. As consumers we can at the very least carry on as normal, so that their forecasts turn out to be somewhere near correct, thus giving their investors and partners confidence. As consumers we could potentially try to shift our habits slightly, endeavouring to keep as much money in the UK as possible by choosing what brands we purchase.

            Above all, we can not go round scaring the easily intimidated by telling them they'll be dying of starvation in a few months, thus scaring them into doing silly things and propagating panic, causing an ever growing section of society to suddenly stop living their lives.
             
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            • longk

              longk Total Gardener

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              From the conversation that I had with a customer on Thursday that appears to be a rather brittle straw. His take is that it is a loophole that can be closed and probably will. Even if it's not if the European Futures Market moves away from London, and it is unlikely to remain in a country outside of the EU then there is no point hanging in there. He was told by his employer the day after the referendum that he would be transferred to Paris - he resigned.

              Why apologise?

              Did they. I've spoken to several people to believed, because they were told by the campaign, that we would be better off.
              I know that this is an appalling thing to say but I'm convinced that there should be a stupidity test before people get their polling cards.

              Yet it was the German Car Makers Association that first told the UK that no Schengen, no free trade.

              It is likely although they would want to see how the UK economy performs outside of the EU first so that could be as much as a decade away?
               
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              • clueless1

                clueless1 member... yep, that's what I am:)

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                Who would set the stupidity test?

                I think there is an implication here that all leave voters are stupid and remain voters are intelligent. Quite apart from being extremely insulting to more than half the population, it is massively flawed. I voted remain. In hindsight Irealise that I hadn't finished my research. I completely overlooked the total stupidity of European parliament. Even in the face of one of their biggest contributers leaving, the rise of the far right in Austria, and several others showing increasing discontent within the eu, they still refuse to listen and reform.

                I voted remain. If we have to have a rematch I will definitely vote leave.
                 
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                  Last edited: Jul 4, 2016
                • longk

                  longk Total Gardener

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                  Oh dear, this is where I wish we were talking face to face. Please understand that I am not trying to belittle you, offend you or cause upset in any way. I respect your contribution and believe you to be one of the more intelligent participants. So...........

                  The days of hunkering down for dear old Blighty are long gone. People can only spend what they have access to (hard cash and credit). Market confidence is created by the markets based on a number of factors, both in the UK and abroad. What people say on forums has no effect. So if times are looking darker then it is incumbent upon employers to protect their futures and those of their employees. If just one factor changes, say the availability and cost of credit, then adjustments have to be made. Less than ten minutes ago my brother in law spoke to me to tell me that his hours (in the construction industry) have been cut from 44hrs per week to 38hrs. This is on top of my sisters employer possibly relocating their multi-million pound UK operations to the continent depending upon what the likely Brexit deal is.
                  Over the next couple of years the markets will fluctuate wildly depending upon chatter regarding Brexit, quarterly results and revised (and revised revised) outlooks.
                  I could make this post very long but my typing is too poor and I think that I have got the main thrust of my "argument" across.
                  As I say none of the above is intended to cause offence.
                   
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                  • longk

                    longk Total Gardener

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                    I did say that it was an appalling thing to say.
                    There was no implication at all. I know several people who voted out for perfectly fair reasons in the sure knowledge that it would do considerable harm to the UK economy. They understood the consequence of their vote and did it not out of stupidity but out of belief. They do tend to be older and mortgage free so are better placed to ride the storm.
                    Where it would be handy is stopping people from voting who did it "cos there's too many Asians here". These people exist, there are more of them than we realised and largely to a man they have no concept of the way that a country works.

                    Yes it is. So flawed as to be totally unworkable. But it doesn't alter the fact that the truly stupid had an affect on one of the biggest decision that the British people have ever taken.
                     
                    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 4, 2016
                  • shiney

                    shiney President, Grumpy Old Men's Club Staff Member

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                    Don't forget Iceland.
                     
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                    • longk

                      longk Total Gardener

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                      I think that Finland is only a part of the Trading area and not a full member.
                       
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                      • shiney

                        shiney President, Grumpy Old Men's Club Staff Member

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                        I can't say much about individual companies and people but I've always had a positive and cheerful outlook on life and it has helped cope with many downturns that have affected my work and personal life.

                        I'm fairly :th scifD36: confident that we can pull through OK and with regard to the financial services there are already some of the biggest financial law firms working on it.
                         
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                        • shiney

                          shiney President, Grumpy Old Men's Club Staff Member

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                          Please Sir, can I set the Stupidity Test? :dbgrtmb: :heehee:
                           
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                          • shiney

                            shiney President, Grumpy Old Men's Club Staff Member

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                            :heehee:

                            So, let me get this straight... the leader of the opposition campaigned to stay but secretly wanted to leave, so his party held a non-binding vote to shame him ...into resigning so someone else could lead the campaign to ignore the result of the non-binding referendum which many people now think was just angry people trying to shame politicians into seeing they'd all done nothing to help them.

                            Meanwhile, the man who campaigned to leave because he hoped losing would help him win the leadership of his party, accidentally won and ruined any chance of leading because the man who thought he couldn't lose, did - but resigned before actually doing the thing the vote had been about. The man who'd always thought he'd lead next, campaigned so badly that everyone thought he was lying when he said the economy would crash - and he was, but it did, but he's not resigned, but, like the man who lost and the man who won, also now can't become leader. Which means the woman who quietly campaigned to stay but always said she wanted to leave is likely to become leader instead.

                            Which means she holds the same view as the leader of the opposition but for opposite reasons, but her party's view of this view is the opposite of the opposition's. And the opposition aren't yet opposing anything because the leader isn't listening to his party, who aren't listening to the country, who aren't listening to experts or possibly paying that much attention at all. However, none of their opponents actually want to be the one to do the thing that the vote was about, so there's not yet anything actually on the table to oppose anyway. And if no one ever does do the thing that most people asked them to do, it will be undemocratic and if any one ever does do it, it will be awful.

                            Clear?

                            Remember 'Yes Prime Minister'? This would have fitted perfectly. :lunapic 130165696578242 5:
                             
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                            • JWK

                              JWK Gardener Staff Member

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                              My head hurts now shiney :)
                               
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