Anyone good at maths??

If i have made 1050 posts and only 3 of those posts have been removed i was just wondering how i would calculate the probability of my next post being removed???
in a percentage??

Thanks

 

Im Only Any Good when it comes Down to £5s £10s £20s and the odd £50

 

The answer is a variable, depending on what you're thinking of saying next

 

The odds increase relative to the content:-
i.e. "The Pope's a Catholic" is factual and will be close to 100% survival
"Labour / or Conservative will win the next election" is controversial and is 50%
Both are irrelevent on GC so may be odds on to be kicked off anyway.
"All members of GC are sane, logical and sober at all times" is tantamount to being libelous, and is likely to be banned - or reported!

 

I bought a book about maths the other week....i thought this should take me a few days to do. I was shocked when i got stuck on addition and subtraction and had to give up all together when it got to percentage I bet it was all stuff i did in the school years.

 

page 6 of 400 and something lol

 

3/1050 = 0.0028571428571429

multiply that by 100 gives you 0.2857142857142857%

Rounding that up to the nearest 1/10 gives you 0.3%

So assuming an even and unbiased distribution of attitude that confirms to your previous 1050 posts, there is a 0.3% likelihood of your next post being removed.

To put that into perspective, once when I was waiting in hospital for an operation to be done, and I asked about complications, a doctor once told me that if a complication has a less than 1% chance of killing me of death, they don't have to tell you. So by that logic, a 0.3% probability equates to 0% as it is less than 1%.

 

Probabilities are not foregone conclusions though

 

Very true. As Terry Pratchett's wizards have observed, things that have a one in a million chance of happening occur nine times out of ten.