Corona Virus Treatment

Discussion in 'Off-Topic Discussion' started by ricky101, Feb 10, 2020.

  1. SimonZ

    SimonZ Gardener

    Joined:
    Feb 9, 2009
    Messages:
    895
    Ratings:
    +745
    I keep seeing dire warnings that if the rest of Britain follows Wales into "lockdown" (a misleading term), the economy will be destroyed. Then I see dire warnings that if we don't adopt a "lockdown" the economy will be destroyed as a result of covid. Supporters of a lockdown say it will give us time to stem the rate of infections and free up hospital beds while implementing an improved system of test & trace, and that failing to implement one now will result in record numbers of covid deaths; opponents say it will result in most of the country losing our jobs and then killing ourselves due to drug or alcohol addiction.
     
    • Agree Agree x 4
      Last edited: Oct 19, 2020
    • Fat Controller

      Fat Controller 'Cuddly' Scottish Admin! Staff Member

      Joined:
      May 5, 2012
      Messages:
      20,438
      Gender:
      Male
      Occupation:
      Public Transport
      Location:
      At me 'puter, GCHQ Ashford Office, Middlesex
      Ratings:
      +37,188
    • SimonZ

      SimonZ Gardener

      Joined:
      Feb 9, 2009
      Messages:
      895
      Ratings:
      +745
      Interesting video. I don't know much about testing and am bewildered by much of that side of the debate, since I've never had a test and am not sure quite what it involves. But let me try and work this out. If I have symptoms of covid, or find I've been at risk of getting it etc, and I arrange a test, presumably if the results come back positive I am part of the statistics for positive results. At what point does it become apparent that this was a "false positive"? How does Dr Yeadon or anyone else discover this? He says the testing currently used (outside hospitals) is guaranteed to provide a certain proportion of false positives, but how do we know this?Finally, what is the main evil of false positive results? Many people seem more concerned about this false positive issue than the virus its self. Surely a false positive is better than a false negative?
       
      • Agree Agree x 1
        Last edited: Oct 19, 2020
      • SimonZ

        SimonZ Gardener

        Joined:
        Feb 9, 2009
        Messages:
        895
        Ratings:
        +745
        Presumably we should now expect the Welsh and Irish economies will be destroyed in the next couple of weeks, with record numbers of bankruptcies, drug and alcohol addictions, and deaths? And presumably today's news means Taoiseach Micheál Martin joins his Welsh counterparts in being regarded as a totalitarian dictator brainwashing his people?
         
      • Fat Controller

        Fat Controller 'Cuddly' Scottish Admin! Staff Member

        Joined:
        May 5, 2012
        Messages:
        20,438
        Gender:
        Male
        Occupation:
        Public Transport
        Location:
        At me 'puter, GCHQ Ashford Office, Middlesex
        Ratings:
        +37,188
        From what I can work out his thinking (and it certainly seems plausible) that the accuracy of any testing done outside of a hospital is highly inaccurate, and therefore throwing up a lot of false positives. Indeed, Dominic Rabb himself admitted that the tests were only 7% accurate.

        Pillar 1 tests (those done in hospital, on people who are already ill) are much more accurate not least because they are taken and go directly to the lab.

        Pillar 2 tests take longer to get to the lab, are not taken in ideal conditions and therefore are open to contamination, and therefore give lots of false positives.

        The common cold and the flu are both coronaviruses - they may not be SARS-Cov2, but they are coronaviruses and as such they can trigger a positive result.

        Dr Yeadon is evidencing his thoughts by comparing the number of tests, number of positives and the number of fatalities - tests and positives have risen dramatically, but fatalities haven't followed suit.

        I see your argument that a false positive is better than a false negative in as much that it could be viewed as a 'safe side' failure, but the reality is that those figures - - that data is being used to shut down businesses and put people out of work, and also see people denied treatments that they need.

        I have said before on this thread that the tail is wagging the dog here and we are not getting a true picture of what is going on - - it would seem that the governments around the world are so scared of being accused of getting it wrong that they have gone into panic mode and are doing just that... if we tested people that were ill, offered them the very best treatment we can, and then record the positives/negatives out of that, it would give a truer ratio - - saves throwing all that money away on tests on people that are not and have not been ill.
         
        • Agree Agree x 1
        • Informative Informative x 1
        • Fat Controller

          Fat Controller 'Cuddly' Scottish Admin! Staff Member

          Joined:
          May 5, 2012
          Messages:
          20,438
          Gender:
          Male
          Occupation:
          Public Transport
          Location:
          At me 'puter, GCHQ Ashford Office, Middlesex
          Ratings:
          +37,188
          I think the bankruptcies are fairly likely, with a hell of a lot of economic damage done. We will no doubt bounce back at some stage, but the ride is about to get a whole lot rougher as businesses are hitting the wall putting people out of work. Drug and alcohol abuse may increase - alcohol, certainly, however I would think we will see more deaths from suicides (over debt and money) and also poverty driven (cold, damp homes, reduced hygiene etc) as folks simply don't have the money to house themselves or keep their heads above water.
           
        • SimonZ

          SimonZ Gardener

          Joined:
          Feb 9, 2009
          Messages:
          895
          Ratings:
          +745
          So unfortunately we are stuffed, and the poorest and most vulnerable will pay the biggest price. Seems its either covid or economics that will do for us all.

          Hopefully we can all agree though that the policy makers bringing all this in are not doing it to brainwash or purposely cause harm, but because it seems the lesser of two evils?
           
        • Fat Controller

          Fat Controller 'Cuddly' Scottish Admin! Staff Member

          Joined:
          May 5, 2012
          Messages:
          20,438
          Gender:
          Male
          Occupation:
          Public Transport
          Location:
          At me 'puter, GCHQ Ashford Office, Middlesex
          Ratings:
          +37,188
          Erm... maybe. The trouble is that they are doing what they are doing in spite of data and other scientists pointing out the errors/issues and are carrying on regardless. There a gaping chasms of irregularities in the data sets, particularly when other respiratory illnesses and other morbidities are taken into account. So no, we cannot be wholly sure that there is not a deliberate undertone because we are not being told the truth in full.
           
        • Freddy

          Freddy Miserable git, well known for it

          Joined:
          Jul 15, 2007
          Messages:
          9,111
          Gender:
          Male
          Occupation:
          Retired - yay!
          Location:
          Bristol
          Ratings:
          +11,581
          “deliberate undertone”? I have to ask, what would be the gain in deceiving the public?
           
          • Agree Agree x 1
          • SimonZ

            SimonZ Gardener

            Joined:
            Feb 9, 2009
            Messages:
            895
            Ratings:
            +745
            How many countries, governments and world leaders would be complicit in this veiling of the truth, and how come they all agree?
             
            • Agree Agree x 1
            • SimonZ

              SimonZ Gardener

              Joined:
              Feb 9, 2009
              Messages:
              895
              Ratings:
              +745
              and luckily for the government, they decided to embark on this deception at precisely the same time as every other government of every other country in the world had the same plans. Great minds think alike, they say.
               
              • Agree Agree x 1
              • Scrungee

                Scrungee Well known for it

                Joined:
                Dec 5, 2010
                Messages:
                15,511
                Location:
                Central England on heavy clay soil
                Ratings:
                +26,406


                The only 7% accurate bit I've read was about testing at airports, and was that only 7% of infected travellers would be identified, so isn't that 83% false negatives?


                Sky News on Twitter doesn't make sense unless somebody appears to have confused negatives with positives

                Twitter

                Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab says the "challenge" with testing for #COVID19 in airports is 'the very high false positive rate' and adds 'only 7% of tests will be successful in identifying those who have the virus'.
                 
                Last edited: Oct 20, 2020
              • Fat Controller

                Fat Controller 'Cuddly' Scottish Admin! Staff Member

                Joined:
                May 5, 2012
                Messages:
                20,438
                Gender:
                Male
                Occupation:
                Public Transport
                Location:
                At me 'puter, GCHQ Ashford Office, Middlesex
                Ratings:
                +37,188
                I genuinely don't know @Freddy - I think my wording was very poor there (as usual), all I know is that there is a hell of a lot that we don't seem to be being told. It could simply be that Boris couldn't lie straight in bed if he tried, so lying is a default setting for him.

                Agreed, and that is the bit that makes no sense - - but you must agree that we are not being told the full truth here?

                Ooh, fair point - I recalled the 7% and my understanding that it was to do with the accuracy overall. It could very well be that I got them the wrong way up.

                All I can go by is the fact that Dr Yeadon seems to be one of many, educated voices who are questioning thngs and being utterly disregarded - - why? Surely science, especially when something is new and unknown territory, is exactly the opposite? Surely science is considering all scenarios and investigating them - not a we're right, you are wrong attitude?
                 
              • Scrungee

                Scrungee Well known for it

                Joined:
                Dec 5, 2010
                Messages:
                15,511
                Location:
                Central England on heavy clay soil
                Ratings:
                +26,406
                What, all of them, including those suggested by scientists who are obviously bonkers?

                That could take forever (investigating economists' views would take even longer).
                 
              • Fat Controller

                Fat Controller 'Cuddly' Scottish Admin! Staff Member

                Joined:
                May 5, 2012
                Messages:
                20,438
                Gender:
                Male
                Occupation:
                Public Transport
                Location:
                At me 'puter, GCHQ Ashford Office, Middlesex
                Ratings:
                +37,188
                Put the obviously bonkers ones further down the queue of course, but why continue apace whilst ignoring others (not bonkers) whilst at the same time your own data is not making sense? Economists have their part to play in the bigger picture, but not the science.
                 
              Loading...

              Share This Page

              1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
                By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
                Dismiss Notice