Scottish Independance

The timetable, the only concrete thing in the whole plan, says that all the details will be ironed out within 18 months, and the whole thing will be implemented by 2018.

That means if there is a Yes vote, its going to be potentially March 2016 before anyone really knows for sure what's happening, then they'll have a little more than 2 and a half years to react.

That sounds like quite a long time, but it really isn't. Larger business have plans and forecasts in place spanning the next five to ten years. Sure they can react much faster if really needed, but often the 'capital' needed to react is tied up in all sorts of projects and investments, so anything 'big' has to be timed such that it lines up with all sorts of different factors coming to maturity.

In short, businesses know that they simply can't wait to react. They have to be proactive based on assumptions and what little is already known.

 

Will this be a clincher?

http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-e...and-eurovision-entry-if-yes-wins-9724350.html

 

Breaking news - the Yes and No campaigns are both ahead in the polls!

 

From the mouths of babes...
a young 16 year old lass said "it's like wanting a divorce but keeping the joint bank account"
very well put IMO,
Jenny

 

A very good analogy

 

If it wasn't the lives of ordinary people that was at stake, I think I'd have liked the Yes campaign to win. If only for the satisfaction of knowing the Hooray Henry DC went down in history as the first ever prime minister of the UK to actually lose about half of it.

I'm also a tiny bit concerned that if 'No' wins, the government, in total panic, has promised them the earth. Presumably to be funded by the rest of us who will not see similar benefits.

 

I'm hoping it's a draw so they have to do it again, making loads out of the polls on it at the moment

 

Truth be told i can't wait till its all over...Also hope its a NO vote..Its gonna change everybodys life where ever they live in the UK if its a YES vote

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...-Bayern-new-King-of-England-and-Scotland.html

 

Now for the un-funny stuff. George Osborne won't be attending the G20 Finance Ministers Summit in case there's a Yes Vote, so he'll be around to deal with the consequences. The BoE are supposed to have contingency plans and emergency statements ready. The Scottish Banks are also supposed to be getting extra cash to put in cash machines.

The Coalition have never sorted the UK's budget deficit, and this will take a real turn for the worse in the event of Scotland leaving the UK. Even if an independent Scotland agrees to take on their fair share of the National Debt, things will get a whole lot worse for the remainder of the UK.

Excluding North Sea Oil & Gas Revenue, Scotland currently contributes 8.2% of UK taxes, so any organisation, department, individual position, etc. that is currently financed by the UK as a whole would need a 9% increase in funding to make good the shortfall. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-24866266 Just a few examples would be:

The Prime Minister & every cabinet post
The Monarchy
Embassies & Consulates
Overseas armed forces bases http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_overseas_military_bases#United_Kingdom
Trident
Aircraft carriers & subs (apparently they don't want a share of these and maybe loads of other stuff)
GCHQ
MI5
MI6
+ Every single government organisation that covers the whole of the UK.

So that's either a 9% increase in tax required to maintain the status quo with loads of stuff, or a massive programme of redundancies (together with redundancy payments followed by benefit payments), loss of economy of scale and any sale of offices/sites will be less massive 'churn' costs. A future remainder of UK government will have to make massive savings.

And again that's without any loss of oil/gas revenue and the need to sort out the existing UK budget deficit. There have been predictions that the pound will fall up to 15% after a Yes Vote, and there will loss of the UK's AAA credit rating pushing up both inflation and credit costs. Big inflation increases will further push up costs for all of us including UK pensions that are guaranteed up to RPI.

P.S. Anybody got a clue what would happen to the House of Lords post Scottish independence? Our government doesn't seem to have thought about that, let alone worked it out together with a whole load of other stuff, the whole thing seems like a flipping shambles.

 

Well 5 more sleeps till we find the outcome of this
Scottish independence referendum

 

This would be the very best outcome.

Val

 

Losing Scotland's tax contribution doesn't automatically mean that the rest of the UK will be worse off by that amount. If that was the case, then Scotland has a rock solid case for independence. That would mean they are paying into the system but getting nothing out.

Once Scotland has gone, they will no longer be paying into central government, but they wont be able to claim anything from it either.