That, I can sort of see - however, they'd surely be even partly right? Taking my local area for example, there has been numerous occasions this year where things have been cancelled (car boot sales, markets, outdoor family events etc) because of dire warnings of gale force winds and floods... yet the reality, literally a day after the warnings were issued, barely even reached more than a shower with a bit of a breeze. Not even remotely close to the forecast. And why is it, if we are so willing to accept that computer modelling can be so far off when it comes to the weather, were folks to 100% cast iron sure that the models for viruses during the pandemic were so correct it was almost like a religious cult if you dared to question it?
The forecasters should give us the forecast, the best they can do. Why do they feel they need to tell us more, just do your job, and forcast. I dont want them telling me to "slap on the sunscreen" or tell me I need to buy a boat or get myself a kite. That kind of stuff is just showmanship trying to make the weather exciting for those that like a thrill now and then. They stated today its going to be minus 11c in the next few days, but they didn't say where? Just seen the ITV forecast, they didn't even give us the correct temperatures for the next few days, just the stupid "feels like" temperatures, which are totally pointless to anyone growing plants or gardening for that matter. But it is more dramatic.
Give it time... I am fully expecting the "500 mile snow bomb" type headline before too long - that usually means we will get about half an inch of snow that causes utter chaos on the roads, shuts airports and only lasts for a morning
Because weather is chaotic it is difficult to predict and the best models can only give you an indication, often expressed as a probability, over more that a few days, the shorter the forecast the more you can rely on real time measurements taken off weather buoys and weather ships etc to get better short term predictions.
Fair enough - then perhaps we need to have less warnings unless the resulting risks are severe enough? Let's not have a yellow warning because it might rain for a couple of hours... but by all means if it is going to be torrential for an afternoon and will almost certainly result in flooding, then have a warning. What happened in Monmouth over the weekend, that is warning worthy - what happened here the night before, not worth discussing let alone a warning.
I think we all accept weather is chaotic, likely to change etc. Well I do anyway, but they definitely like to spice it up more these days than they used to. I'm quite happy with a forecast that states its based on probability, but weather warnings are mostly stated a few hours before the event, and often just normal weather. They really are in the realms of crying wolf far too often.
I find the best forecasts are the regular shipping forecasts and the 7 day forecast every Monday just before 0600 hrs on Farming Today all on BBC Radio 4 the rest of the forecasts on Radio 4 tend to be short and sweet as they are squeezed in at the end of one programme and just before the hourly news bulletin so no time to spice it up.
I think the forecasters have probably all never recovered from a huge dose of the willies after Michael Fish told us that storm in October 1987 was nothing exceptional and would pass along northern France anyway. It turned out to be a cyclone with hurricane force winds - 18 dead, 15 million trees felled and massive property damage across south eastern England. Oops. Don't want that happening again do we?
They can't really win can they? Whichever way they play it people will be complaining. But definitely don't want to risk people drowning in basements like The 1953 Floods in Essex I was in London during the storm of October 1987. I had started my first job and was sent on a training course at head office. A number of us new graduates were staying in the very central but rather down-at-heel Regent Palace Hotel near Piccadilly Circus. In the night the fire alarms kept going off, and I heard a noise that sounded like dinner plates being thrown down the stairwell. That was windows breaking. In the morning there was absolutely no transport, underground or overground. We walked up Shaftesbury Avenue and all the theatre hoardings were ripped up and strewn over the road; tower blocks had curtains hanging out of their windows where the glass was missing.
may be but that was television not radio. I didn't know about his statement until it was reported on the radio a couple of days later.
I used to quietly enjoy listening to the shipping forecast, especially when insomnia was a regular feature in my life...
Side note - very nice man, Michael Fish. I met him some years (probably at least 20 now) in a petrol station in Twickenham. He was fuelling his Mazda RX8 and I was fuelling my Jaguar at the other side of the same pump... so we shared viewings of each others car and a bit of chit-chat along the way.
Radio or TV? That doesn't make any difference @NigelJ. All the forecatsers and weather services will have got the shivers after that big boo boo.
Yes, me too, and ending the night with Sailing By before the World Service took over. Rarely listen to Radio 4 any more, but it used to be an all day and all night thing for me. I did try falling asleep to Radio 3 for a while, but you could never trust them not to suddenly hit you with opera in the small hours. The horror!
